Georgia football is at the point in their season now where it seems like they need to win out to make the College Football Playoff. That was made clear by the CFP committee Tuesday night when they dropped Georgia all the way to No. 12 after their loss to Ole Miss last weekend.
Whether or not Georgia deserved to fall that far is up for debate, but at the end of the day there is no changing what the committee decided to do. It is now up to Georgia to prove them wrong by defeating No. 7 Tennessee this weekend.
But what if Kirby Smart and Georgia didn't even need to win this game to make the 12-team playoff?
Georgia predicted to make CFP even with a loss
According to ESPN analytics, Georgia would still have a 55 percent chance to make the playoffs this season even if they lose to Tennessee on Saturday. However, these odds shoot up to 96 percent if they beat the Vols.
ESPN’s analytics say that if Georgia loses to Tennessee, and falls to 7-3, they would still have a 55% chance to make the CFP… pic.twitter.com/W2saiN2lL2
— CFB Kings (@CFBKings) November 14, 2024
Origianlly most thought that Georgia would have to win out if they wanted to make the CFP, but ESPN's data here is telling a different story. Even if the committee doesn't like Georgia, which they clearly don't, ESPN still gives Georgia a better chance at making the CFP with three losses than they would missing it.
The obvious thing to say however is that Georgia can't afford to leave this decision up to the committee. The CFP committee already recklessly dropped Georgia too far after their loss to Ole Miss, so nobody should be confident in what they would decide to do if Georgia loses again.
But one thing is certain, if Georgia beats Tennessee and wins their final two games after that, it will be impossible to leave them out of the 12-team playoff field. So Georgia is much better off going that route than putting their faith into a committee that already does not like their resume.