Oh, no doubt. This is a trap game for the Georgia Bulldogs. That being said, the national media has started to put too much respect on the Mississippi State Bulldogs than Jeff Lebby's team has even earned. Yes, Mississippi State is a halfway decent SEC team at 5-4 on the year. However, they need to beat either Georgia, Missouri or Ole Miss to achieve bowl eligibility. It might have to be vs. Missouri...
This is because the latest betting odds have gone even more in Georgia's favor. They officially opened at Georgia laying 7.5 points on the road in Starkville. That line was on Sunday. Then on Wednesday, the betting line moved even more in Georgia's favor to 8.5. Georgia being favored on the road by multiple scores seems fair, but maybe that was not enough? Then, the line moved once again.
From FanDuel SportsBook, Georgia is now laying 9.5 points on the road at Mississippi State. The associated moneylines are Georgia -350 and Mississippi State +280. The over/under comes in at a combined 56.5 points. Mississippi State has performed better against the spread (8-1) than Georgia (3-5), but 71 percent of the money is on Georgia to cover and 69-percent of bets are on Georgia, too.
ESPN analytics may only be giving Georgia a 79-percent chance at a win, but this should come back to an even greater point: When does Kirby Smart ever lose to unranked opponents? The last time it happened was before COVID. That came in the infamous double-overtime defeat at home to South Carolina way back in 2019. Georgia and South Carolina is a rivalry game, so those things do happen.
In truth, the bookmakers cannot get a line good enough to get people to bet on Mississippi State.
Georgia being disrespected by bookmakers initially has totally flipped
Look. Bet on Georgia at your own peril. The opening spread may have more do to with the notion that Georgia rarely covers games under Kirby Smart's watch in recent years. This is a team that is led by a defensive-minded head coach whose defense comes and goes, all while trying to work in a first-year starting quarterback. Gunner Stockton has answered the bell more often than not, but this is still true.
So rather than wager on Georgia to win by 10 points now, maybe we all should take a play out of the Todd McShay playbook to bet on Georgia in the second half or in the fourth quarter? This has proven to be the best second-half team in the country, but Georgia tends to disappoint in the first half just about every week. This team was built to win in crunch time, but it will give up some points early on.
To tie a bow on this, could the line move even more in Georgia's favor before Saturday's early kickoff? Potentially, but it just kind of shows us this was a bad line coming in. Bookmakers put too much stock into Georgia winning by only four in Jacksonville. Had Stockton decided to run up the score, it would have been an 11-point victory had he not taken a well-calculated knee to ice the game at the one.
The point spread is moving so fast for Georgia at Mississippi State it has been hard to keep up with...