While everybody and their brother outside of Georgia wants to see the Dawgs go down in Rocky Top, the betting odds tell a different story. Despite ESPN giving Tennessee a slight edge to pull off the home upset of Georgia, both SEC programs' national championship odds could not be further apart. Tennessee's will skyrocket if the Vols beat Georgia, but they are not a serious playoff contender yet.
Dan Santaromita put forth this article for The Athletic over who the real College Football Playoff contenders are at this stage of the season. Again, all of this will change with each passing week, but let's just say that the odds are very much in Georgia's favor here, when compared to the road that Tennessee will have to travel to make it back into the College Football Playoff for the second time.
Here is what the latest national championship odds are entering Week 3, according to BetMGM.
- Ohio State Buckeyes: +525
- Penn State Nittany Lions: +600
- Georgia Bulldogs: +600
- Texas Longhorns: +700
- Oregon Ducks: +900
- LSU Tigers: +1000
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish: +1500
- Alabama Crimson Tide: +1500
- Clemson Tigers: +2000
Ohio State leads the charge at +525 into the middle part of the week. Penn State and Georgia are tied for second at +600. Texas comes in fourth at +700, with Oregon placing fifth for the time being at +900. LSU is just off the Ducks' trail at +1000, while Notre Dame and Alabama come in at a respectable +1500. Clemson still has +2000 odds, but the Tigers seem to be fading fast this season.
It should be noted that Tennessee is tied for the 20th best odds with five other programs at +8000...
Georgia has far better odds to win national championship over Tennessee
Admittedly, this could all change on a dime if Georgia does not play up to its standard on Saturday afternoon. A loss at Neyland would suggest that anyone and everyone on their SEC schedule could conceivably knock the Dawgs off this season. Conversely, Tennessee had one of the weakest schedules in the SEC coming in. A win over Georgia may be unexpected, but can they afford a loss?
Overall, seeing a whopping +7400 difference between Georgia's odds to win it all and Tennessee's suggests the Dawgs and Vols are playing for two totally different things this season. Both could be playoff viable like they were a year ago. However, only one has the pedigree to potentially run the gauntlet and be crowned national champions. It is the team who has won the last eight meetings.
Again, at some point in time, Josh Heupel may finally get the best of Kirby Smart. But for right now, he is completely owned by the Georgia head coach. For Tennessee to pull off the home upset, the Vols will have to score points on this vaunted Georgia defense, as well as stifle the Georgia offense from doing much of anything at all. Both could happen, but Tennessee is so banged up coming in...
Georgia was always going to have better national title odds over Tennessee coming in, but this is wild!